What if you invested before the DotCom Bubble exploded? Ask Rolf!

Investing

Hi RIP readers,

Hi RIP readers,

As you probably know if you’ve read my last two posts (2020 Q4 Financial Update Part 2 and Part 2-BIS) I’m a bit concerned that the stock market is heavily overpriced, in a bubble. A bubble that in my opinion has a lot in common with the DotCom Bubble of 2000-2002. This is making me reluctant of investing in stocks again, in fact I sold most of them in July-August 2020.

I want to quantify my reluctance in this post.

Many readers suggested me to “just invest in stocks, this is for the long term!”, “stocks always go up!”, “don’t care about daily fluctuation, they’re just noise… in the long term stocks will return their promised 6-7-10% per year!”, “time in the market beats timing the market”, “YOLO!”.

I already addressed my fears in the previous two posts: fear that we might be at the bubble peak, and fear that it might take a loooong while to recover from a crash – and I’m not as young as you probably are.

“…But look at Bob, who only invested at market peaks and still ended up being trillionaire!”

Congrats Bob, but today I want to introduce you Rolf, the Swiss investor who invested all of his grandma inheritance, 1 Million CHF, in an ETF tracking MSCI World Index on January 1st 2000.

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2020 Q4 Financial Update Part 2-BIS: Q&A on Part 2

Finances, Investing

Hi RIP readers, this is Part 2-BIS of 2020 Q4 Update (here is Part 1, here is Part 2).

Last Friday I’ve published Part 2 of 2020 Q4 update, which is still missing a Part 3 about personal and blog updates, hopefully seeing the light before the end of January.

Part 2 covered my 2020 investment actions and performance, and more importantly my 2021 investing plans.

I’ve published this very long post on Friday afternoon, before a busy weekend with no time to catch up with comments and personal messages. I’ve received a lot of them. I thank you all!

I’m writing this post as a collective answer to the (mostly constructive) criticism, to your questions, and a feedback on your recommendations.

Two things before we start:
– Thank you for your feedback. I really appreciate you spending your time to leave me a feedback.
– Please, comment my posts using English Language. The language of the blog is English (RIP slang 😀 ). If you can read it, please make the effort to write your comments in English. I accept (I prefer, actually) Italian language for mail or private messages on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Reddit), but I prefer English comments on my blog posts. Some of the comments in Italian language are very good, and they add a lot to the conversation. Using a language only 1% of he world population can handle isn’t inclusive enough for my standards.

Having said that, let’s get started!

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2020 Q4 Financial Update Part 2: Investments Analysis, Actions, and Plans

Finances, Investing

Hi RIP readers, this is Part 2 of 2020 Q4 Update (here is Part 1).

Today I’m going to expand the “Investments – Analysis, Actions, and Plans” section left empty in my previous post. I’m going to share my beliefs, my fears, my decision making process, and will commit to some actions in order to get back into a “sane” asset allocation as soon as possible.

I’m kind of rewriting my Investor Policy Statement today.

Mind that this post is very long (8k+ words), and superficially edited. 

It’s not just a stream of consciousness, because there’s some deep ETF research, thought process, behavioral analysis, rational decision making, and more. 

I started writing this post without an outline (I never do), and without knowing what the conclusions would have been. I used this post to clarify my thoughts, and that’s what writing does for me.

I don’t write because I have something to tell, I write because I have something to learn. And as a side effect I’m sharpening my thinking skills. Writing is amazing!

Enjoy!

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2020 Q4 Financial Update Part 1: Financials

Finances

Hi RIP readers,

Welcome to the hardest-to-write quarterly financial (and personal) update so far.

It’s not been a great quarter from almost any point of view. But that’s what public accountability is for: to take responsibility and walk the shame walk anyway, with your shoulder straight.

It’s also the end-of-year update. 2019 review ended up being 16k words long, a kind of a small book.

I’ll do my best to keep 2020 Q4 review manageable.

…Nope, I’m at 7k words and more or less halfway thru my update!

I decided to split it in 3 parts. This is part 1, about the financial aspects. Part 2 will be a deep dive on my investments, and part 3 is personal and blog update.

Let’s get started.

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Monthly Learning Journal 11 (4/1/2021)

Inspirations, WLJ

Hi RIP readers, welcome to the Monthly Learning journal, hopefully in its final frequency format.

I started my curation series with the ambition to publish an episode on each Monday, but it lasted for just 3 weeks. I slowed the frequency down to “every other Monday”, and it lasted another 7 episodes.

I hope the Monthly format (first Monday of each month) will be sustainable for me to publish, and rich enough for you to appreciate.

I didn’t take into account that the total time spent reading/watching/listening to podcasts didn’t slow down on my side. Halving publishing frequency implies doubling posts size 🙂

To avoid reducing the series to a Dirac distribution, I’m also going to filter much harder. Moving more content down to the “Other Content” section, and sadly cutting some good content out.

Maybe I’ll switch back to a weekly or biweekly format, but drastically limiting the number of entries. Or maybe I’ll move this series directly in my public Roam Database. Who knows! I only know I love this series so I’ll keep posting 🙂

This Month WLJ themes are: journaling and self reflection, anti-FIRE, investing, decision making and productivity, fake gurus and more.

Unlike many previous editions, I haven’t found anything “spectacular” (rating above 8/10) this cycle. I haven’t searched very hard though, but maybe some of the new discoveries will last in the long term, bringing more value over time 😉

Next Episode on February 1st, 2020.

Enjoy!

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I moved our Pillar 3A accounts to Finpension

Investing, Switzerland

Hi dear RIP friends, last week I completed the 3 post series on “trolling a financial advisor”.

The “season finale” was about how not to fall for an Insurance Policy Pillar 3A, and how to identify snake oil salesman tactics.

Today I’m going to show you better alternatives available for your Pillar 3A, and I’m also going to tell you what I’ve done with my and my wife’s Pillar 3As.

Before we even start: I’m not going to tell you yet another time what’s a Pillar 3A, I assume you know about it. This post is probably only useful for Swiss residents, so if you’re not living and, more importantly, paying taxes in Switzerland see you on Monday January 4th, 2021 for the first MLJ 😉

Enjoy!

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Trolling my first “Financial Advisor” Part 3 of 3 – Insurance Policy Pillar 3AB

Beware of the Sharks, Switzerland

Hi RIP Friends,

This is the third and last post in a short three posts series about my experience with a Financial Advisor.

Your can read first post here, where I explained how I was cold contacted by her assistant on LinkedIn, and what happened during our first 1h-long video call.

You can also read the second post here, where I analyzed the two Structured Notes that she thought would have been the perfect investments for a risk averse person like “me”.

In this third post we’ll take a look at her final weapon: a Pillar 3A/B with a linked Insurance Policy.

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Trolling my first “Financial Advisor” Part 2 of 3 – Structured Notes

Beware of the Sharks, Switzerland

Hi RIP Friends,

This is the second post in a short three posts series about my experience with a Financial Advisor. Your can read first post here, where I explained how I was cold contacted on LinkedIn, and what happened during our first 1h-long video call.

The Advisor sent two Structured Notes factsheets to me few weeks after our call.

I won’t tell you much about my conversation with the Advisor like I did in the previous post, it wasn’t a deep conversation. I showed my perplexities to the Advisor in our follow-up meeting and she quickly moved on trying to sell my the next crappy product, the Insurance Policy Pillar 3A/B that we’ll see in next chapter.

I kind of regret having been so direct with her in this second meeting. I would have loved to see the Prospect documents, shame on me for not having gone for it. This post would have been much richer if I had gone close to sign a concrete proposal.

Anyway, I how you enjoy this deep analysis of the Structured Products I’ve ben offered.

Have fun, and let’s get started! 🙂

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(Bi)Weekly Learning Journal 10 (7/12/2020)

Inspirations, WLJ

Hi RIP readers, welcome to the LAST RIP (Bi)Weekly Learning Journal.

Yeah, I know… all the good things must come to an end, live with that!

I’m killing (B)WLJ…

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Trolling my first “Financial Advisor” Part 1 of 3 – First Contact

Beware of the Sharks, Switzerland

Hi RIP friends,

I got contacted by a financial advisor via LinkedIn out of the blue three months ago. We interacted for a while, and I’m now ready to share this experience with you: the why, the how, and the what (crappy products) they tried to sell me.

To keep things manageable I’ve split this post in three parts. In the first part (this post) I’ll show you their approach, their analysis of my finances, and their marketing tactics. In the Second part we will take a closer look at the first crappy products (Structured Notes) they wanted to sell me. In the third and final part we will destroy the second crappy product (an Insurance based Pillar 3A-3B) they wanted to sell me.

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