Table of Contents
Hi RIP readers, this is Part 2 of 2020 Q4 Update (here is Part 1).
Today I’m going to expand the “Investments – Analysis, Actions, and Plans” section left empty in my previous post. I’m going to share my beliefs, my fears, my decision making process, and will commit to some actions in order to get back into a “sane” asset allocation as soon as possible.
I’m kind of rewriting my Investor Policy Statement today.
Mind that this post is very long (9k words), and superficially edited.
It’s not just a stream of consciousness, because there’s some deep ETF research, thought process, behavioral analysis, rational decision making, and more.
I started writing this post without an outline (I never do), and without knowing what the conclusions would have been. I used this post to clarify my thoughts, and that’s what writing does for me.
I don’t write because I have something to tell, I write because I have something to learn. And as a side effect I’m sharpening my thinking skills. Writing is amazing!
UPDATE: I received a lot of feedback and I decided to publish a Q&A post: Part 2-BIS, and a mail exchange with Julianek: Part 2-TER
2020 Q4 Investment Analysis
The image above is a screenshot of the Finance Subsection of my Net Worth Sheet at the end of the year 2020. The section has a row for each tradeable asset I’ve owned in 2020. Every time I buy or sell shares of an ETF/Fund I add a comment on my spreadsheet (in the Asset/Liabilities section) with the sale date, amount, price and so on. Take a look at my Spreadsheet series for more details.
[Actually, since October 2020, I’m using Notes, not Comments on my Google Spreadsheets. I’ve solved the annoying issue of random people deleting my comments thanks to a suggestion from a reader, Mr. Brown! Comments are not dead though! You can comment on my spreadsheet if you want to ask questions or fix a bug on my formulas 🙂 ]
When I close a position (when I own no more shares of an ETF for example), I grey out the value of the asset in the Finance Subsection from the closing month on, but I keep tracking it for the current year. When a new year shows up, I delete the entries for assets I don’t hold anymore, and only monitor the prices for the securities I own.
Well, as you can see most of the Stocks/bonds/ETFs/Funds area has been greyed out. It means I sold almost all the securities during 2020.
Spoiler: that’s what the Finance Subsection looks like on January 12th, 2021:
October 2020 has not been a great month, and some of the ETFs I sold in the previous quarter fell below my sale price, lending me a hand that I should have caught. For example VT went below 79 USD/Share (the price I sold them 3 months before), and I was tempted to rejoin the stock market. But I didn’t. And now I bite my fingers.
In November I’ve sold all my VYM (US High Dividend Stocks) positions at 90.90 USD per share (116k USD proceeds, 8.7k USD “realized profits“), doubling down on my bearish attitude toward the market.
Also in November, I sold all my VBR (US Small Cap Value Stocks) shares at 127.5 USD per share (46.8k USD proceeds, 7.2k USD “realized profits“). They’re above 150 today.
Why didn’t I sell VYMI (Ex-US High Dividend Stocks)? Because it has unrealized losses, i.e. current price is below the average price I paid for the shares, and I don’t want to realize losses.
[2021 Update: I sold all my VYMI shares as well on January 6th 2021, at a small “profit” in USD…]
let me explain myself why anchoring to “Unrealized Profits & Losses” is stupid:
- If you factor in dividends/distributions (minus taxes) so far, the beak-even selling point is not at 0 unrealized P&L.
- If you factor in currency conversion rate from asset currency (USD) to my reference currency (EUR or CHF) the break-even point is hard to track.
- Sunk Cost Fallacy: how much you paid for X shouldn’t influence the decision of holding/selling X.
The right question you should ask yourself at any given point in time is “if I had all my money in cash, would I buy the number of shares I currently own of this assets?“. Of course you should factor in trade fees (and capital gain tax if your country taxes it), but given the irrelevance of fees on Interactive Brokers and the lack of capital gain tax in Switzerland the question above can be interpreted literally. And I’m implicitly answering “YES” all the time, even though if I had all my money in cash I wouldn’t buy a stock portfolio composed by only 20k of VYMI…
Holding on VYMI for a bad anchoring reason is stupid. I wouldn’t advise any person in a situation similar to mine to behave like I’m doing.
In the meantime I’ve bought more US bonds, mostly BSV (Short Term US bonds). Not because I want to hold US bonds long term, I just wanted to park some cash while I re-defined my investing strategy. BSV has a small yield (1.5%) and a predictable trajectory.
I also bought BND (Total Bond Market US), but I promised myself I won’t buy more BND. BND has better yield (2%) but it’s much more volatile. In March 2020 crash it lost 10%. It holds bonds of all kind of maturities. A minor increase in US treasury bills yield (like in early January 2021) can easily make the ETF lose a significant percentage. It lost 1% in the first 10 days of 2021. I don’t want this extra risk in my portfolio. I’m already pissed off by currency risk.
I plan to sell BND soon and at least buy BSV in the meantime. I’ve actually entered an optimistic limit sell order on January 4th, but it didn’t execute. In the two following days its price went down.
Between October and December I also sold the other minor bonds ETFs, mostly to simplify my portfolio, and purchased BSV with the proceeds:
- I sold my IEAC shares (European Corporate Bonds) at 134.9 EUR/Share (38.4k EUR proceeds, ~0 Profits but fucking 28 EUR of trade fees). Obviously they skyrocketed after I sold them…
- I sold my IEML shares (Emerging Markets Government Bonds), the “ugly duckling” of my portfolio, at 60 USD per share (24.3k USD proceeds), at a small (416 USD minus trade fees) profit.
- I sold my FLOT shares, another US bond ETF, 26.9k USD proceeds, and a 100 USD loss.
Another thing you should NOT do is to keep monitoring assets once you sold them.
All the assets I sold went up in price! I took a look at the individual stocks I played with during the pandemic: one of them is up 4x compared to my sell price… But the asset that pissed me off the most is WING, the “fallen angels corporate bonds”. It’s one of the best performing assets of 2020. It ended 2020 up by 13.6%, and compared to when I sold all my shares in May 2020 it’s up 16.8%… plus dividends.
How stupid am I??
See, the more you want to be active in the market, the more regrets, overconfidence, greed, fear, and FOMO will kill you.
Seeing kids with their pocket money all invested in Tesla and Bitcoin 10x their portfolio while I’m getting a couple of jabs every single day (bonds down a bit, USD down a bit, stocks up a lot) is consuming too much of my mental energies.
Here’s a short extract of my December Journal:
The worst possible day. USD lost 1% vs CHF and 1.2% vs EUR. Plus BND lost 0.5%. My monthly NW Delta in EUR is negative, and it’s the first day of the month! Salary already accounted for, of course…
I feel like shit for this. I feel a lie. When in March the market was going down and everyone was losing money I felt being not alone. This time everybody is winning and I’m losing, and it hurts. I’m holding US bonds. The USD is depreciating (-10% since August), and bonds are going down, and down is going their Yield… what am I doing? How can I pretend to teach other people about personal finance when I’m so stupid? I’m performing way worse than someone who’s just keeping their money in cash, in CHF. This hurts me.
Another horrible day, where USD lost another 0.44% vs CHF and 0.22% vs EUR. BND went down 0.14%. It’s a shitty scenario… meanwhile, stocks go up.
Another shitty day for USD, we’re at -2% in 3 days… at least BND gained something today.
A bad day for bonds and an incredible good day for stocks. It doesn’t make sense. At least USD recovered something vs EUR (not vs CHF).
The USD is declining again, this month it’s at -3% compared to both EUR and CHF… Monthly NW Delta is in the -10k range for both EUR and CHF. 2020 NW Delta is below +100k in both EUR and CHF. It’s the worst year on record for my finances since I moved to Switzerland.
I need to do something, this situation is not sustainable.
First, calm and relax. Take a look at this amazing Richard Coffin video if you’re feeling the same:
Second, let’s start planning in a rational way.
Where I am: I’ve sold almost all my stocks and minor bond ETFs, I’m and holding ~970k USD in currency unhedged US bonds. Waiting for something to happen.
“if I had all my money in cash, would I buy my current portfolio?”
Of course not.
What would I do instead?
How to Rejoin the Market
- Honestly reassess my risk aversion. Everything is going to be ok.
- Honestly determine the time horizon for my investments. Do I need my money now?
- Honestly assess my ability to understand the market. How sure I am that stocks are heavily overpriced? How sure I am we’re in an asset bubble? How sure I am the Efficient Market Hypothesis is not working?
- Swallow my Pride. Accept I’ve been wrong.
- Come up with an ideal asset allocation for long term portfolio, based on my risk aversion and income needs.
- Define the transition strategy. I’m not going to jump in all at once.
- Brainlessly stick with my new strategy. And not be tempted to time the market again.
Let’s do this exercise together, and please kick my ass on the comment section 🙂
Reassess my Risk Aversion
I’m scared of a strong NW decline. I think it all comes down to this. I’m addicted to seeing my net worth going up.
NW moves thanks to two forces: cashflow and market.
While I have a job, and while we save 60+% of our incomes, we still have a steady positive cashflow. The effect of a market decline could at least partially be compensated by the positive cashflow.
Once our wealth reached a certain multiplier of our yearly savings, I started feeling unsure. Savings in 2020 has been 120k CHF, while NW is in the 11-12x savings range. If we were 100% invested, a 10% market decline would zero cashflow benefits. I’d hate that.
It’s like swimming in the sea with a random current.
Your swimming skills are your savings, your cashflow, your incomes minus expenses.
The current is the performance of your investments.
When you’re “poor” there’s no current. Your ability to move in any direction depends only on your swimming skills. If you save, you build wealth. If you don’t, you stay poor.
While your wealth grows, the strength of the current increases.
The impact of your swimming effort decreases with the raising current. At one point you’re at the mercy of the random current. Your swimming skills help, of course, but where you’ll be tomorrow depends almost entirely on the strength and the direction of the current.
If your expenses grow your savings shrink, your swimming skills drop, and the impact of the current grows. Expenses are like extra burden you carry with you while swimming. If you drop your burden you can swim faster.
If your income shrinks your savings shrink, your swimming skills drop and blah blah blah. Your income is your physical strength. If you stop working out, your swimming skills degrade. While Michael Phelps can fight open ocean currents, I’m probably unable to fight lake currents.
Our wealth has reached a point where currents are strong. I’ve experienced a couple of market corrections and the flash Covid market crash, and holy shit how uncomfortable it has all been!
At the same time I see that our expenses are going up, and will continue to do so at least until BabyRIP leaves child care. 2021 will be a way worse year with regards to expenses.
Plus, since my 2019 burnout I’m perceiving my career very close to the end. Every month I think this is the last month I have a salary. I don’t see myself as someone with a good salary, but as someone who won a lottery. My nice salary history belongs to the past. Yes, I’m still cashing a good 200k salary, but it won’t last. I don’t want it to last. 2020 has been my last year of good earnings.
In the “swimming with a random current” example I was experiencing a strong current, a weakened body, and a 10kg block of concrete that I have to carry with me. I’m scared.
I’m scared even though I know the current is not supposed to be random. Historically it has showed a bias toward your desired direction. Apparently, at one point even if you constantly swim in the wrong direction (say… when the wealth reaches 25x your expenses 🙂 ) you’re expected to move in the right direction in the long term.
The current is our friend, we’re in a river, not in the open sea!
Even though I’m aware of that, I seem to only care about short term results now.
The current has been very strong in the right direction for too long, and I fear a reversion to the mean – even though nobody knows where the mean is.
Meanwhile, everybody seems so enthusiast of the strength of the current, and I’ve always been “fearful when others are greedy“.
In conclusion: my risk aversion comes from short-termism, lack of self confidence in my present and future ability to earn an income, and expenses that are objectively too high. And probably from a genetic, cultural, environmental lack of familiarity with managing a 7 digits wealth.
But maybe I shouldn’t beat myself up too much, it’s understandable to feel this way. Please, listen to this amazing Rational Reminder Podcast episode with William Bernstein (author of The Four Pillars of Investing). There’s nothing wrong with being more protective with your wealth once you’re “old”, or at your career sunset.
I will fight a bit, and push myself out of my comfort zone. Actually, I don’t know what my comfort zone is now. There’s no way not to play the investing game once you reach 7 figures. You can’t keep all your money under the mattress or in a checking account with negative interest rate.
I’ve not much to lose anyway.
Determine the Time Horizon for my Investments
This is connected with the previous step. The longer I perceive my money could stay on the market, the more I’d be ok with taking more risk, buying into a bubble, thinking long term, being Bob. The current can do crazy things in the short term, but over a longer period of time you’re gonna flow to the river delta!
As I said many times, our expenses keep growing and our incomes are going to disappear in a few months for sure. We might be exposed to a 100k CHF/Year negative cashflow for a while. I know, this is unrealistic and extremely pessimistic.
But it’s what my brain wants to account for. Let’s have a chat with him…
A -100k/year cashflow would require zero income and expenses growing by 22% compared to 2020. Ok, this is unrealistic on both sides. Well, not sure on the expense side, but in case of prolonged zero earnings I’m pretty sure we’d cut some expense, or even move back to Italy at one point. I don’t plan to completely stop earning money, and I will never accept such a negative cashflow for more than 1 or 2 years.
But even if we’d burn thru our cash for 10 years at a crazy rate of 50k per year, I can safely say that out of 1.387M CHF (our Net Worth in CHF on December 31st 2020), 887k CHF won’t be touched for the next 10 years. Ok, we might decide to buy a house (I don’t think in Switzerland though), but then the burn rate would decelerate. Say 800k can be thought as long term investments.
Some of my money are locked in Tax Deferred Accounts, like Pension Pillar 2 & 3, and that should be taken into account since I can’t withdraw them. Should I add them to my 500k “cushion + short term” amount?
Luckily no. My Pillar 3 is fully invested in tax efficient way, costing me less than the money invested in my taxable account. Pillar 2 is currently not invested, but I can consider it as part of the 500k “cushion + short term” investment at the moment. When I won’t have a job anymore I can move the money into a Vested Benefits Account, invest all of it, and moving some money from my taxable account into “cushion + short term”.
Given that I have ~300k CHF (growing monthly while I have a job) in my Pillar 2 I can keep extra 200k in cash / short term investment, and invest all the rest in a long term portfolio, with a time horizon of 10+ years.
Assess my Ability to Understand the Market
Wait, is 10 years “long term” enough?
Is 10 years enough to claim with absolute certainty that the market will be up?
According to the US Large Cap Stock Market (S&P500) it seems very likely.
But we’re not Americans, our “market” is the World Market (possibly ACWI, i.e. All Country World, i.e. developed plus emerging countries) and we mostly care about returns in our close currencies: EUR and CHF.
This is the best data source I’ve found on 1-5-10-15-20 years annualized returns of the world market, by Investment Moats, a nice Singaporean blog:
Also take a look at this graphs from Allocate Wisely:
Again all graphs show nominal total returns in USD.
It seems 10 years is a long enough time horizon, even though recent total nominal returns are closer to 5% than to historical average of 10%. And if we take into account current high valuations I’d bet the future will be less rosy than the past.
And it also seems that the USDCHF direction is not exactly helping:
“Yeah, but this is just 2020, let’s look at the historical data!”
“Oh, come on… you’re still cherrypicking! Look, since late 2010 the USD is up, I’m bullish! Show me more data!”
“Oh… crap! 😐 ”
It seems like I’m arguing against the foundations of this entire “passive investing” thing, and to some degree I am. I also wrote a post about how little confident I am that the 4% Rule will work in the future.
I still think long term – very very long term – mankind
will could grow indefinitely, and the exponential nature of growth makes today “high” joining price irrelevant. But I’m talking about 50 years in the future. I think we’re already priced 20 years from now. Reversion to the mean could last a generation, we could enter a global Nikkei index phase:
We live in a hyperinflated scenario where every asset is expensive, and risk-free rate is zero. Everything that can generate a recurring revenue stream is getting a crazy price tag. That’s also why the house market is booming again everywhere.
Still, stock prices go up, vertical. This is happening at the expense of future returns, just inflating “multiples” like P/E Ratio.
I’m not sure we can extrapolate too much from the past this time.
And I’m almost 44 years old, In a generation I’ll be gone.
In the long run we are all dead
– John Maynard Keynes
Ok, let’s take a deep breath.
All I’ve written so far in this paragraph is what my guts are telling me. Not just my guts, also my biases and my limited understanding of the complex phenomenon behind supply and demand.
I’m aware of it. I think market valuations are irrational, but I know that I’m the one who’s probably acting irrationally. And I know the worst thing to do right now is to act emotionally.
The rational investor in me who tries to keeps emotions at bay, trust the EMH, and believes in the human potential to unlimitedly improve society is telling me to stop and ask myself few more questions:
1) Can I predict when the market is going to drop? NO.
2) Is it guaranteed that when/if it drops I’ll have a chance to buy stocks at a cheaper price I see today? NO. Maybe these are the last days in human history where VT is priced below 100.
3) Will I buy stocks in the mid of a freefall, as soon as the index will hit 0.01$ below today price? NO. I would probably want to wait at least another 10% decline… else, why not buying stocks today instead of waiting to be offered today price in the future?
Am I just betting that tomorrow I’ll have a 1+% discount?
Well, in that case I’m betting on the green area below:
If tomorrow will be a day outside the green area (which happens 85-90% of the trading days) when am I supposed to get back in?
And if it’s inside that area, and tomorrow market drops by 3%… will I buy or wait for a larger crash?
I sold all my VT shares at ~79 USD/Share in July. VT price went up and down, offering me the option to rejoin the game at a similar price two times. I missed them.
A couple of weeks ago Michael Batnick wrote a post about why you shouldn’t wait for the stock market to crash, and it’s a very good one.
Even though it feels discomforting, I need to get back in.
Swallow my Pride
It’s hard to admit that in the last 6 months I underperformed the dead investor by a lot.
It’s hard to admit that I would have been way better off just asking a portfolio manager to handle my money, and paying them even a 5% fee!
It’s hard to admit that I would have been way better off giving my money to a Roboadvisor even though I know I wouldn’t need to pay a 1% fee to buy the same basket of ETFs.
The behavioral aspects of investing are the hardest to get. There’s no way to learn them 100% on paper, you must feel the pain. You can’t play poker with a paper account, it’s not poker.
So… I’ve been wrong
“WRONG! Oh, sorry, I didn’t introduce myself: I’m RIP’s rational half“.
Now what? Should I buy VT at
94 95? I could buy 18% 20% less of shares with the same amount of money. I sold a used car and I’m buying it back at a 18% 20% higher price…
“WRONG way of thinking! We already discussed that. It’s a Sunk Cost”
Yeah but… all at once? I don’t feel like it. If I buy stocks and the market drops 20% the day after I’d feel really bad 🙁 And it’s not like the other consideration about high expenses and a dead-end career would disappear… they’re real.
“Ok, that’s a fair point. You can do Dollar Cost Average, Value Average or any other capital deployment strategy. But I’m glad to see that we moved to the next step!”
But I really, REALLY hate to accept I’ve been wrong!
“Would you feel better if you had never sold, and kept investing in stocks during the last 6 months?”
Yeah, of course!
“And if you still owned your VT, VYM, and EIMI shares, would you sell them today?”
I don’t think so!
“Are you the same person who wrote few paragraphs above the following quote?”
The right question you should ask yourself at any given point in time is “if I had all my money in cash, would I buy the number of shares I currently own of this assets?“
“Your honor, I have nothing more to add 🙂 ”
I see… well, maybe I would have sold. I started biting my fingers when VT reached 70, maybe at 85 or 90 I would have sold anyway. I don’t know.
“No no no shut up! We already covered it. Annie Duke, which is a black belt on this kind of games, said it perfectly at 5:23 of her latest James Altucher Podcast appearance: ‘you should be treating every second you held a stock as a new buy order‘. History doesn’t matter, your investment decisions should depend on strategies/formulas that don’t have ‘what happened in the past’ among their variables”
But I’m investing in the first place because ‘what happened in the past’, i.e. stocks returned 10% on average, the market always went up…
“Well, ok, that’s the only piece of information you should take from the past”
So… that can’t be questioned? I must believe that it will continue to be true? Even though Earning Yields (1/CAPE) is below 3%? And what about the future of USD?
“Ahem… I need to go”
And I should drop a lot of money into high volatility, low expected future returns, overpriced assets just because “There Is no Alternative“?
Wait, don’t leave me alone!
I’m not ready yet 🙁
“That’s a matter of risk tolerance, and we’ve already been there. I understand that you don’t feel comfortable investing even your long term money 100% in stocks, and that’s fine. Find an asset allocation that makes sense for you (I bet your 100% US currency unhedged Bonds is not your ideal long term asset allocation), one that you would accept investing into if you had all your money in cash today”
Ok, it makes sense now.
Ideal Asset Allocation for my Long Term Portfolio
All the rambling above has been going on in my head during the last 3-4 months.
I am at this stage now. I’ve accepted I’ve been wrong, and I need to find a good asset allocation that achieves several goals:
- Peace of Mind but some Yield.
- Has room for some small bets.
- It’s more aggressive when “valuations are low” and more conservative when they’re high.
Peace of mind (with some yield) is achieved by investing less than 100% in stocks (but also more than 30-40%), and by picking lower volatility stocks. I’m still in love with Value stocks, which are underperforming growth stocks for a couple of decades, but that might be more solid in case of a “traditional” market crash. I might want to play with the Five Factor Portfolio, that the guys at PWL Capital (Ben Felix above all) explained in this amazing Rational Reminder Podcast episode, and that’s based on Eugene Fama and Kenneth French research:
Here the link to the detailed PDF by Ben Felix, and here a list of few exemplificative portfolios that implement the strategy, tilted toward Canadian Investors.
Room for small bets means keeping a fraction of my portfolio “active”, say 5%, as a “relief mechanism” to give myself the illusion of control under the agreement that the remaining 95% of my portfolio will follow strict rules. Rules that can’t be changed by emotions, but only by sitting down and thinking, analyzing data, taking rational decisions.
Aggressivity based on valuations means the percentage of stocks should be function of one or more measures of relative stock misprice. I know this is probably suboptimal, but it allows me to be more invested when a crash has happened and less invested in situations like today, which helps keeping fear at bay. That’s a necessary compromise to keep my sanity.
A good candidate for a measure of valuations is Shiller P/E Ratio, also known as CAPE. Or the more recent ECY, also from Robert Shiller. The problem with CAPE is that it’s an absolute measure but we have no idea what’s the “right” value. The problem with ECY is that it’s a relative measure but it doesn’t tell us when everything is nonsense (put all your money into Tesla, it’s much cheaper than Bitcoin!).
I prefer to use CAPE, rebalance quarterly, and eventually re-evaluate the formula yearly.
I’m thinking about a stock percentage between 50% and 100% based on current CAPE value of MSCI ACWI:
- 50% if CAPE > CAPE_MAX
- 100% if CAPE < CAPE_MIN
- linear interpolation between CAPE_MIN and CAPE_MAX
I’m thinking about MIN = 10 and MAX = 30. MAX and MIN to be reviewed once per year, but shouldn’t move too much.
Basing one’s confidence on a singe market metric (that one is free to re-calibrate over time) looks good to me. Basing one’s optimism on CAPE is also what Big ERN found more likely to work during the withdrawal phase, given that the 4% Rule is Dead.
There are also many resources on CAPE-based asset allocation on bogleheads forum, though the general sentiment is that they’re suboptimal. I’m ok with that.
While S&P500 or Total US market CAPE is available everywhere, current MSCI ACWI CAPE is hard to find. The best proxy I’ve found is on StarCapital website, but it’s lagging few months:
And I don’t understand why the value they’ve calculated for CAPE are greater than respective P/E ratios. If earnings are growing over time, CAPE values should be greater than P/E Ratios, right? Am I missing something obvious? I don’t want to use a data source if I don’t fully understand it.
And btw, lagging more than 2 months might mean a lot: US CAPE is claimed to be 29.8, but it’s close to 35 today (January 7th 2021):
At the current (two month ago) World CAPE value of 22.3, according to my function, I should invest 69.25% of my long term portfolio in stocks. LGTM!
First Draft of a Sane Strategy
What do we have so far?
- 500k CHF liquid, or invested for the “short term”.
- 5% of the reminder (45k CHF, which is 5% of ~900k CHF) for “small bets” and fun money.
- What’s left should be the long term portfolio, ~850k CHF.
- 70% of the long term portfolio (600k CHF, which is 70% of 850k CHF) in stocks, according to an asset allocation strategy TBD, inspired by factor investing and my desire to perceive an income from dividends. Even though dividends are tax inefficient in Switzerland, and irrelevant in general, high dividend yields are usually correlated with value factor.
- 30% of the long term portfolio (250k CHF, which is 30% of 850k CHF) in bonds (which one, TBD).
On a monthly basis:
- Reinvest dividends. Use them to rebalance. Don’t sell assets to rebalance on a monthly basis, unless there has been a major gain/loss (10% movement or more in the market).
- If it’s a positive cash flow month (thanks to salaries and/or other profits), invest more money into IB or into tax deferred accounts like the Pillar 3A (if it makes sense, and if I haven’t already dropped the full jackpot yet).
- Have fun with the fun money. Do not rebalance if I lose money. Do not rebalance even if my bets are winning, until the relative weight doubles (10% of the long term portfolio).
On a quarterly basis:
- Put more money into the long term portfolio if the short term one is bigger than 500k. Do nothing if the short term portfolio goes below 500k. The initial “500k short term portfolio” is not target amount to be maintained over time, but a buffer that should last at least 10 years even if we have negative cash flow.
- Find the new stock/bond split in the long term portfolio based on the new CAPE.
- Rebalance among asset classes and within each asset class, taking into account tax efficiency in various asset locations (Pension Pillars, Brokerage accounts and so on).
On a yearly basis:
- Re-evaluate the 500k CHF size of the short term portfolio. It should not grow above that number, but it can shrink if my confidence increases, or if my endeavors generate some money, or if our expenses shrink.
- Re-evaluate MIN_CAPE and MAX_CAPE, and min and max stock percentage.
- Consider extra fun investment money if the year went particularly well: according to the strategy described so far, I’m never adding extra fun money. If our NW grows, the relative size of fun money can unfairly shrink. Anyway, I need to keep an eye on this. Having fun money to play active investing might consume a lot of mental energy and foster greed & fear, and other behavioral problems.
In a few (2-3) years:
- Re-evaluate the whole strategy, consider alternative assets, consider real estates (primary residence or rental properties), and so on.
First Considerations and some Preliminary Tuning
I kind of like the overall picture, but I’d like to make some considerations and tune some parameters.
Final Definitions: our Net Worth is made of short term money, long term fund, and fun money. When/if real estates or other illiquid asset classes join the party I’ll review the overall framework.
I like to call the long term “fund” because that’s my real “pension fund”, something you don’t want to touch a lot. The others are just “money”, to be used or played with.
Given that my strategy for the long term fund is already conservative enough, either I enlarge its initial size (shrink initial 500k short term money), or I play more aggressively with it.
I like to keep the dependency on CAPE, and not be fully invested in stocks at the mercy of high market valuations even in the long term fund, so I’d rather shrink the short term money down to 300k CHF, which means 4-6 years at least of living expenses (assuming pessimistic but not crazily pessimistic negative cash flow).
I’m also lowering the initial fun money down to 3% of the remainder. I want to invest the money guilt-free, better to keep the amount very limited.
Given that our NW on January 1st 2021 is 1387k CHF (yes, while we live in Switzerland I will use CHF as reference currency for investments), initial fun money is 33k CHF (3% of 1087). Ok, let’s round it up to 35k 🙂
The remining 1052k CHF constitutes the long term fund. The long term fund can only receive more money and can’t be withdrawn from unless other conditions apply.
- If at any quarterly (or monthly) check the short term money is above 300k CHF (this Short Term Cap can change at yearly review time), the difference will be put into the long term fund, and maybe a small amount into the fun money. This is usually the case when we have a positive cashflow (salaries), and the shot term money is already capped.
- Dividends distributed by assets in the long term fund must stay in the long term fund, even though it’s cash, and in my Net Worth all cash sources are summed up. It will be an accounting hell, but I don’t want my long/short term strategy to change based on distributing vs accumulating ETFs. From now on, cash on brokerage account is not “cash” but part of the long term fund. Well, my short term money will also contain assets on IB that might distribute dividends… I’ll explore setting up multiple virtual accounts on IB.
The asset class allocation among stocks and bonds (more on “why bonds, in 2021?” below) will follow the CAPE based formula, with Stocks percentage decreasing linearly from 100% to 50% when World CAPE is between 10 and 30:
Which means today our long term fund should be invested ~730k CHF in stocks, and ~325k CHF in bonds.
The short term money should be held in cash, short term bonds, and other low risk assets.
Any liability should be covered by the short term money. It means if expected tax liabilities are ~10k, this amount is algebraically added to the rest of the short term money assets.
The short term money assets can overlap with the long term fund. I can hold the same product (probably bonds) in both portfolios.
Monitoring and Alarm Signals
If the short term money drops below 100k, then “somebody should do something“.
It probably means our cash flow is strongly negative, or it has been negative for quite some time. We still have 1-2 years of runway money, but it’s better to start looking into a plan B.
The condition can be met in very different scenarios like:
- In 20 years from now, and by then our long term fund has 10 Millions, which means it’s not a problem at all, and we should enjoy a FatFIRE (not early anymore) retirement.
- In 4-5 years from now, while the long term fund grew a bit and it’s now at 1.5M, which means we’re doing ok, and we might just want to refill the short term money.
- In 2 years from now, while the market crashed and the long term fund value is 500k, which means we’re screwed and it’s already too late.
As you see, the condition “short term money < 100k” is not the only one that needs to be monitored.
The Ravenna Threat is also still up and running:
Mapping between current holdings and the three funds model
The elephant in the room, of course, is my Pillar 2 while I still have a job. It’s not stocks, it’s not bonds, it’s not cash… what is it?
Well, I can keep modeling it as bonds. Very good bonds, actually. 1% guaranteed return in CHF, with a 3% effective returns in last 2 years (but I missed at least 9 months of good returns in 2020 because I moved the money out of Hooli Pillar 2 in October 2020). So I consider my Pillar 2 as bonds.
Given its size (close to 300k, growing by 2k CHF per month while I have a job) it must belong to the long term fund. Which means if the bond portions of the long term fund should drop below the size of my Pillar 2 I have accounting problems. as I said above, the long term fund should be invested 325k CHF in bonds… it’s borderline!
Let’s say the market crashes tomorrow, and I need to rebalance via selling bonds, and buy even more stocks because CAPE decreased… how would I do that?
If it happens while I still have a job and a Pillar 2, I’ll live with that. I’ll temporary “move” some of the Pillar 2 amount virtually into the short term money, and some of the cash / short term bonds into the long term fund and rebalance. Yes, it’s a cheat, but while I work (and while I have a positive cash flow) I can handle a “loan” from the short term money to the long term fund.
When I’ll quit, my Pillar 2 will be moved into one or two Vested Benefits Accounts, probably VIAC and/or Valuepension. The money in the VBAs will be highly invested in stocks, which means I will sell some of the stocks in my brokerage account and I will get back full control of my short term money.
I guess the rest is easy to attribute:
- Cash (excluding IB cash positions), taxes, and others will be “short term money”.
- Pillar 3A, VBAs, and most of my Interactive Brokers investments will be the “long term fund”.
- Some of the short term money will also be in Interactive Brokers, probably invested in short term bonds (like BSV, but not only).
- My Fun Money will probably be in IB (individual stocks? options?) as well, but may also be I’ll explore other alternative assets “just for fun”.
Few words on Bonds
“Hey RIP, I don’t know if you noticed but it’s 2021! Are you really investing in bonds?”
Yeah, I still think bonds can play a role. Lending money and cashing an interest is still a valid business model. Sadly, central banks are screwing us up, but I consider bonds to be “something”, while other unproductive-but-hyped assets like Gold and Cryptos to be “nothing” in terms of investment. Good for speculation, yes, but not for investing.
This is not a good time for bonds, but sooner or later rates will rise – they have to. If central banks won’t succeed in killing the free market, a time for bonds will come back.
Sooner or later I’ll write my post series on bonds, promised.
I want to keep investing in bonds, mostly as a place where to park cash for a small but positive return (in the short term money), and maybe play with more aggressive bonds in my long term fund.
If low yield, minus bond ETFs TERs, and eventually currency hedging costs will make the game not worth playing, I’d hold cash instead. Eventually split in many banks to stay below the negative interest rate threshold.
Yes, cash is trash, but I don’t buy the T.I.N.A. argument either: there’s always an alternative, we’re just not looking for it hard enough.
Few words on Alternative Assets
P2P Lending? Nein!
Private Equities? Non!
Real Estate? Nunca Mas!
I’m excluding alternative assets from my long and short term strategies for now.
Of course I feel free to experiment even all of the above with my fun money 🙂
Few words on Real Estates
The low yield environment, and the T.I.N.A. ghost might suggest a house purchase.
Given my employment instability, location uncertainty, and the high prices of Real Estates literally everywhere, it doesn’t make sense to consider a primary residence purchase at the moment.
While I don’t exclude a drastic switch to a “rental properties strategy” for yield in the future, this is not something we’re considering in the first iteration of this strategy, a 2-3 years horizon.
Few words on Currency Hedging
I intend to write a full post about this topic sooner or later.
I want to keep playing the stock game unhedged: a globally diversified portfolio of stocks is the best hedge against a single currency.
About the bond game, I’m currently feeling the pain of a strong dependency upon the USD vs CHF fluctuations. But currency hedging doesn’t come for free, and bonds yield is pretty low these days. I’m considering manually diversifying among bond markets and skip currency hedging.
I haven’t made my mind yet.
Few words on my Age
The CAPE based “stock percentage” formula above doesn’t take into account my age, i.e. the “real” time horizon of my investments. Target retirement funds in US are funds that automatically reduce stocks allocation with age, to reduce volatility at the expense of expected returns.
I don’t do that in my formula, but I explicitly plan to review the formula after 2-3 years.
Instead of adding extra age-related complexity in the formula, I’d rather re-assess my risk aversion, time horizon, and the other parameters in a couple of years, when we might have a less foggy picture of our future.
Few words on Money-based Life Decisions
As I mentioned above, the StupidiFI plan (Ravenna Threat) is still up and running.
We are not trying to design a full “withdrawal strategy”, or “life plan” today.
We are observing, monitoring, ready to take actions based on our desires first, and our financial conditions second.
If I’d stop producing an income and our Net Worth drops below a threshold, I will consider going back to work.
If living in Switzerland becomes financially unsustainable, and getting (and keeping) a new job happens to be hard and/or painful, we’d move back to Italy before we lose FI status there.
I perceive less freedom than our Net Worth suggests, that’s how I’m wired, but I think we’ve room for relax. We’re not fully FI, our desired lifestyle is not 100% financially covered, but we’re comfortably sitting somewhere in the middle of the FIRE Spectrum.
Long Term Fund
The long term fund takes possession of:
- My entire Pillar 2
- All our Pillar 3As with Finpension
- Mrs. RIP Vested Benefits Account with VIAC
- BND and VYMI positions (oops, they’re gone!) in Interactive Brokers
- Cash positions in Interactive Brokers
- Cash Deposit for the flat (let’s consider it Swiss bonds that yield 0%)
- Old Italian Bonds (yielding 6%, I won’t touch them until maturity date)
It’s currently invested:
- ~10% “World ACWI” stocks, a bit tilted toward Switzerland (VIAC + Finpension)
- ~30% in “Untouchable” bond-like funds (Pillar 2, Cash Deposit, Italian Bonds)
- ~60% in US total bond market (BND)
The Ideal Asset Allocation should be:
- F(CAPE): stocks
- 1-F(CAPE): bonds
With strategies TBD within both bonds and stocks.
At current World CAPE 22.3 (source), stocks should be 69%, and bonds 31%.
The long term fund should start with ~1.050M CHF (730k Stocks, 320k bonds).
The bond strategy should be half “global bond market, all countries and all maturities” (like Vanguard BNDW) and half more “local”, or at least “less American”.
Since BNDW is composed by 46% BND (total bonds US) and 54% BNDX (total bonds ex-US), I might just buy the two underlying ETFs in different proportions.
If I can get an overweighed EUR and CHF exposure, I’m ok with non currency hedged bond ETFs. BNDX is composed of 60% European bonds. I might get a mix of 20% BND and 80% BNDX for a ~50% exposure to Europe bonds, 20% on US bonds, and 30% on everything else.
It means I can keep part of my BND shares (20% of 320k = 64k CHF).
It doesn’t matter that the traded currency of the ETFs is USD, what matters is the currency exposure of the underlying products, which will be “a lot of currencies, but at least 50% EUR+CHF”.
… but we have a problem: my Pillar 2.
While I have a job and a Pillar 2, I must consider it part of the bond component of the long term fund. Given its size (minus expected lump sum taxes) of 280k CHF, there’s not much room for other bonds at the moment.
It’s ok, I’ll live with that while I have a job.
730k CHF should be allocated in stocks. Currently, only 93k (Pillar 3As and VBA, minus expected lump sum taxes) is invested in stocks.
My ideal asset allocation within stocks should:
- Be as passive as possible.
- Have exposure to Total World (ACWI) stocks, like Vanguard VT (and Pillar 3As and VBAs), say 50%.
- Extra exposure to Emerging Markets, like VWO or EIMI, say an extra 10%.
- Exposure to small cap value stocks (world), like VSS + VBR and 10%.
- Extra exposure to value/dividends stocks (world), like IWVL, or [VTV/VYM]+VYMI, 30%.
As I said I got inspired by PWL Capital Five Factors Portfolios, illustrated by Ben Felix in a recent Rational Reminder podcast episode.
Here’s their 100% stocks portfolio:
As we can see the Red components reconstruct a “World ACWI” index, a bit tilted toward Canadian stocks (US + Canada + EAFE + EM), while the Green components track Small Cap Value Stocks, (US + Ex-US). Small Cap Value stocks add up to 16% of this portfolio.
My portfolio is a bit different, with lower exposure to Small Cap Stocks, but higher exposure to Value Stocks.
The ETFs I indicated are not final yet.
Few words on Small Cap Value
There are many Small Cap Value ETFs for the US Market by Vanguard (VTWV, VIOV, VBR), by SPDR (SLYV), by BlackRock/iShares (IWN, IJS).
I picked VBR because it’s the largest in terms of AUM, but the others are just as good. The difference among funds from the same provider is usually just the actual index being tracked in the US Indexes jungle:
Sadly, there isn’t a good enough “World”, or “Ex-US” small cap value ETF.
There are indexes, like the MSCI ACWI SMID Cap Growth Index (there also a Developed World – non ACWI – version), but I couldn’t find any ETF tracking the index that meets some basic criteria like a reasonable TER, and large AUM.
The one proposed by PWL Capital (Avantis AVDV) is a bit small (400 M$), too young (2020), and it has a large TER (0.36%).
I’d rather take VSS for the Small Cap ACWI Ex-US. Large (7 B$), old (2009), and cheap (0.11% TER).
It’s tracking small cap stocks, not small cap value stocks, but I’m already getting 30% extra exposure to Value Factor elsewhere in my asset allocation.
Few words on Value/Dividend Stocks
Like for small cap stocks, tracking the Value factor outside US is neither easy nor cheap.
iShares IWVL tracks MSCI World (Developed) Value, it’s a 4 B$ fund, launched in 2014, Ireland Domiciled (UCITS compliant, available from European brokers, but also more expensive to trade, higher TER, high bid-ask spread, subject to stamp duties…), mentioned on JustETF.
Good, but not excellent.
Also from iShares, EFV tracks EAFE Value, which is Developed World excluding Us and Canada. 20 Developed nations instead of 22. It’s an old (2005), large (7.5 B$) US domiciled fund, with a surprisingly high TER (0.39%).
Again, good but not awesome.
I might decide to stick to VYMI for the World (ACWI) Ex-US Value, even though it’s not exactly “value” but “High Dividend Yield”, which is correlated but not the same.
“But you just sold VYMI, RIP!”
Ehm… yeah… but…
“It was the “coward RIP” who did that. If you didn’t notice we’re taking this thing over 😉 ”
Exactly, thank you my dear left brain!
Anyway, for the US part of Value Stocks the default solution should be VTV: US large cap value stocks.
But I don’t like this asymmetry. VYMI demands VYM in my portfolio. I might buy a piece of both.
I might invest 15% in US (5% VYM, 10% VTV), and 15% in Ex-US (15% VYMI) for a relative 50-50 split among US and Ex-US.
Not final yet.
Few words on Emerging Markets
This is my personal bet. It’s been my bet also during corona crash, and it played our pretty well.
I doubled down with EIMI on March 16th and 18th 2020 (21 USD per share), but of course I sold all my shares few months later at prices between 27 and 30 (for a 30-45% gain).
It’s now sitting at 37.70… almost up 90% from March 2020, and more than 30% above my sell price… it hurts a lot!
Maybe it’s too late for this bet 🙁
“Trick: don’t buy the same ETF but buy VWO 😉 ”
Yeah, you’re a genius! Wait, is this a rational thing to do?
“Ahem… I need to leave, bye bye!”
Few words on Vanguard Life Strategy funds
“RIP, why the hell are you complicating your life so much? Just buy one of the new Vanguard Life Strategy funds and you’re done! Ireland Domiciled, 0.25% TER, a percentage of bonds of your choice… what else do you want?”
I wanted to write a post about the new Vanguard Life Strategy funds, which I think are cool and should be more than enough for most of you.
But I want to fine tune both my bond percentage, based on CAPE, and my stock allocation based on Factor Investing (and some personal bias).
Short Term Money
The short term money must be quickly available, preferably held in cash or other short term tools, like short maturity bonds.
I want the net “cash at hand” (actual “cash” + “taxes” + “others” in my spreadsheet) to be around 100k CHF. More than a year of expenses.
The reminder should be invested in short term bonds – if I can get a positive expected yield in my reference currencies (EUR/CHF). Else just hold extra cash, assuming I don’t incur in negative interest rates.
Currency Hedging, high TER, and low (when not negative) interest rates – especially for short term bonds – reduce the odds of finding a positive return in the bond world.
At the moment my BSV plus cash positions exceed the 300k short term money allocation by ~75k CHF.
I will keep ~100k invested in BSV, and another 100k in some EUR short term bond or EUR cash.
I know it’s a waste of resources, but it’s my short term fund. I can sleep better at night with it.
Maybe I’ll keep more BSV, up to the whole 200k, if I can’t find any EUR alternative. But I don’t want to experience another year of such a strong dependency upon USD currency fluctuations for my bonds.
The fun money portfolio will start with 35k CHF.
I don’t know yet what to do with it, but it will be fun 🙂
“RIP, it’s less than 1 BTC…”
Yeah, it doesn’t seem much… but I’m definitely not buying 1 BTC with my fun money 🙂
Of course investing my Fun Money is lower priority than putting back on track my long and short term funds, which means I have no idea at the moment what I’ll do with it!
Come back later 😉
I’ve been talking about long, short, fun portfolios, but where are they? Am I going to open more brokerage accounts?
No, I won’t open any new account for now, unless required by some of the Fun Money activities (Angel Investing? Crypto? P2P lending?).
Long, short, and fun portfolios represent the strategical, virtual split of our net worth.
Bank accounts, tax deferred accounts (Pillar 2, Pillar 3As, Vested benefits accounts), brokerage accounts represent the physical split of our net worth.
I’ve implemented a WIP sheet in my spreadsheet called “Long Short and Fun“, that is going to deprecate the investing sheet.
I’m at 9k words for this post, I’m not going to explain the spreadsheet in detail today, but let’s say that when each entry in the last column is close to Zero my strategy has been fully implemented 🙂
Final 2021 Investor Policy Statement
Everything I’ve written above should be summarized in a new version of my Investor Policy Statement.
I will update my IPS doc asap.
I think having your strategy written down and yourself committed to it is a strong motivator.
The IPS should list “the why, the how, and the what” of your financial life. Go write your own!
I’ve more or less defined the “target” Asset Allocation for my portfolios. Yes, some small details are still undefined, but there are already a lot of “action items” that need to be done.
“RIP, where are your SELL and BUY order?”
Not so fast… I don’t feel comfortable in applying the strategy all at once.
“I thought we had an agreement, RIP…”
Yes, yes, I’m committing to reach ideal AA before the end of 2021.
I will move at lest 50k each month in the right direction.
I’ll give precedence to the assets that “don’t hurt”.
“What does that mean?”
It means that:
- Buying VSS shares without having ever held them doesn’t hurt.
- Buying VYMI shares at 64 USD after having sold them at 63 USD hurts a little.
- Buying VT shares at 96 USD after having sold them at 79 hurts a lot.
I’m only human, after all 🙁
Stick with the Strategy
“So, how long before you change your strategy again?”
I’m committing to review my strategy in 2-3 years, which is also a reasonable time horizon for my current personal crisis.
In 2-3 years I’m either still a Software Engineer, or a full time Creator / Blogger, or something else.
In 2-3 years either we decided to stay in Switzerland forever, or we packed our shit and moved back to Italy.
In 2-3 years either we had another child, or our family is not going to grow anymore.
In 2-3 years either my predictions about the market being a giant bubble have turned out to be true, or I won’t make predictions anymore.
This “half-assing everything” period should be over, and I won’t be revolutionizing the strategy anyway. Maybe some minor adjustments, maybe the impact of some bets reduced, I don’t know. But no more revolutions.
Meanwhile, I will brainlessly stick with my new strategy. No chickening out allowed!
It’s been a long long post, and if you’re still reading here I can’t thank you enough for your time 🙂
I hope you got value out of my long and investment specific post.
Please leave me a feedback, kick my ass, tell me I’m wrong…
[UPDATE: I received a lot of feedback and I decided to publish a Q&A post: Part 2-BIS, and a mail exchange with Julianek: Part 2-TER]
I’ve been exploring and building my strategy “live”, while writing the post. I’m not sure I’m going to edit it much, since I like its unstructured structure.
“But it’s boring, unnecessary long, repetitive… please, cut something out!”
Maybe it’s worth remembering that I’m mostly writing for myself. I’m thinking in public, and committing to publish my thoughts mostly for accountability and feedback.
Being useful, informative, and entertaining is a nice byproduct, but not the main goal of my writing 🙂
Having said that, I hope you had fun and learned something today!
Have a nice day!
Great post. I must have been hard to write!
I get your worries about stocks, but however I don’t understand why you don’t apply the same logic to bonds…
In my opinion, if stocks are overpriced, then bonds are even worse… Have you tried applying your CAPE ratio to bonds?
From a financial perspective, you can see a stock like a bond with a variable coupon (the earnings) that grow over time. Another way of saying it is that a bond is a stock without the growth component. From this point of view, if your opportunity cost is the same, then you should pay way less for bonds “earnings”, which means that the bond yield should be way higher than stocks earnings yields… If you apply the CAPE ratio to bonds, how high is it? I haven’t checked yet but i would bet it is at least equal, or sensibly higher… If that is the case, i do not see why they would be a “defensive” asset allocation.
I agree that it is a hard time because everything looks expensive, but rushing to bonds without applying the same standards as to other asset classes seems curious. I’d love to hear your thoughts about that.
Very hard to write…
Interesting questions about bonds. The CAPE question of bonds doesn’t make sense though. The same line of reasoning would imply that the CAPE of cash is infinite.
I disagree with your line of reasoning. You should pay much more for the same yield (guaranteed with bonds, expected with stocks), because bond yield has no fluctuations, while stocks have. You earn a premium for taking risks.
If bonds were yielding 5% risk free, you wouldn’t see an entire index at CAPE 20 (EY = 5%), it just doesn’t make sense!
My model of bonds, let’s simplify for now and only consider short term bonds, is that I pay Y and get Y+ x% after 1 year. No surprises. Of course ETFs that hold all maturities like BND have a leverage effect that hurts when rates go up. But if tomorrow the FED decides to bring interest rated down to -1% BND would get +10% in a day.
Anyway, I’ll elaborate more on your argument in the next few days 🙂
I agree bonds make no sense. As long as the interest rates for prime CHF bonds (I.e. Swiss government) are hovering at -0.75%, you won’t find a low-risk alternative which gives you a positive return. Anything with higher yield is more risky, but for what upside?
Contrary to what Mr RIP wrote, if interest rates go up, the value of your bonds go down. So unless you think that the rate could go even more negative, there is little upside and substantial downside.
Instead my advice is to keep your “safe” portion in cash! Many banks still don’t charge negative interests for cash holdings of a few hundred thousands which is enough for your target allocation. Take the 0.75% subsidy from the bank. And if you can stomach more risk, shift your allocation to a higher share fraction
Skip the bonds.
Banks in Switzerland are starting charging negative interest for not even that cash positions. PostFinance charges you for anything above 100k.
If interest rates go up LONG MATURITY bonds go down. Short maturity bond aren’t impacted much, and future yields will go up.
I agree that holding long maturity bonds is very risky and there are few upsides TODAY though.
I still don’t understand your opinion regarding real-estate: in Switzerland, real-estate is a great investment, easily in the 8-12% return in the first 10 years and then you can always sell it and make a profit while doing so…
Or if you just don’t want the burden of being an owner, you could just take some Swiss REIT variant, couldn’t you? (Actually IDK how swiss taxes works for these as I don’t have any, maybe that makes them not that interesting maybe?)
8-12% annual return with real estate in Switzerland? 😀
Definitely possible. But I guess not in Zurich. You’d have to search in smaller villages with good demand (low taxes, good employers nearby).
I’m personally getting that return here in Canton SG.
Complimenti per la tua analisi degli ETF. Hai toccato alcuni nodi salienti che sto attenzionando anche io in questo scenario di mercato. La strategia “Value” è stata storicamente punita dopo il grande crush finanziario di dodici anni fa, questo perché negli attivi dei bilanci (che puntano a sopravvalutare il valore contabile delle aziende rispetto al valore di mercato) i crediti verso terzi sono tra gli attivi… e ovviamente una “crisi del credito” non aiuta… pensiamo alle banche che hanno dovuto fare massicce aggregazioni o aumenti di capitale per compensare, distruggendo il valore del capitale di proprietà. In altri periodi però, di inflazione più elevata e quindi di “credito” più redditizio, il VALUE è stato utilizzato da chi nel mercato andava alla ‘ricerca di valore’ (insomma una riserva di valore nelle azioni non dissimile da asset reali, oro, immobili, valute forti etc…). La mia conclusione di correlazione tra il Vanguard ACWI High Dividend e l’universo valore non è stata dissimile dalla tua: se parliamo di indici “Selected Dividend” (es. le 100 azioni a maggiore dividendo di un mercato) andiamo a fare una selezione potenzialmente negativa a livello qualitativo, ma se andiamo sul vanguard che citi in pancia abbiamo 1600 titoli, metà dell’ACWI, ed è un metodo di ricerca di valore più approfondito. Oltre alla metodologia CAPE (la usa Ossiam) e gli Enhanced Value (che non sono “Value” puri… e tra cui c’è quello che possiedi tu… solo che con la scrematura settoriale dello z-sector di MSCI finiscono in pancia ad un indice World quasi il 30% di azioni giapponesi… caspita!), un altro approccio è il Prime Value di UBS, o criteri di selezione ‘alternativi’ al Value come il Wide Moat di Morningstar o il Quality Dividend Growth di WisdomTree. Buona lettura! 😉
Grazie Bowman 🙂
Cosa intendi per z-sector, e dove stanno 30% di azioni Giapponesi?
Ad esempio il iShares Edge MSCI World Value Factor registrava, nell’ultimo rendiconto periodico, il 26,55% di azioni giapponesi: https://www.justetf.com/servlet/download?isin=IE00BP3QZB59&documentType=MR&country=IT&lang=it
Il XTrackers MSCI World Value Factor (XDEV) possiede 31% e oltre di Giappone!
Quindi la selezione z-score (una metodologia di selezione di MSCI descritta a pag.10 di questo pdf qui: https://www.msci.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_Enhanced_Value_Indexes_Methodology_Book_June2017.pdf) serve essenzialmente ad arginare dei settori (come Real Estate e Financial) che finirebbero sovrapesati nelle metodologie Value classiche basate su Valore Contabile/Valore di Mercato dato che i loro valori contabili sono artificialmente alti rispetto al valore di mercato per la natura del business. Detto in soldoni: io banca lavoro a leva finanziaria, posso erogare (per fare un esempio) 2 di finanziamenti per ogni 1 che possiedo di “core” (tra cui il valore azionario)… è abbastanza normale, dato che i crediti verso terzi finiscono nelle attività di bilancio, che i miei libri contabili mi facciano finire nel “Value” (salvo banche fintech o che fanno solo consulenza… tra cui tanti squali), così come il Real Estate che in attivo ha infinite proprietà immobiliari. Questo storicamente ha fatto un effetto di “riserva di valore” se c’è inflazione alta (tendenzialmente i prezzi delle equities sono ‘rifugio’ pensiamo alla Germania anni ’20 in cui l’azionario scese in valore reale del 75% e la valuta mantenne un miliardesimo del suo valore, poi tu hai anche la parte sotto-stimata del mercato quindi hai equities rifugio oltretutto che contengono masse superiori di crediti, immobili ed altri asset sottostanti, insomma non solo tante belle aspettative sul futuro di Tiscali o le future vendite di Tesla), ma è stata una scure quando un’azienda è finita nel “mucchio” delle Value perché? Perché il credito in attivo diventava inesigibile e per non fallire faceva aumenti di capitale facendo crollare del 90% il valore azionario (in pratica l’hai comprata perché piena di attivi, poi quando il cliente non pagava ci hai messo i soldi tu proprietario per tenere in piedi la baracca). Ora, questo meccanismo è stato considerato lesivo o “degno di un’alternativa” da MSCI che per arginare il sovrappeso settoriale ha scorizzato i settori (in quella pagina c’è tutta un’ampollosa procedura)… la conseguenza è un 25-30% di Giappone (sto lavorando ai video sul tema).
Hi, I’ve been reading your blog for the last year, shortly after I moved to Switzerland and started looking into FIRE. Generally I lurk, but I finally decided to join the conversation. I’ve read so many of your blog posts, so I feel like I’ve known you as a person. So please take the following as constructive feedback. I do hope it will not sound harsh, if anything else I’m thankful and grateful to you as I’ve learned a ton of stuff reading your blog.
1. I truly understand your need to write and how it clarifies things. Every time I take the time to write, I always think I should do this more often.
2. I read the whole post and honestly, it seems to me you’re overthinking things. (Disclaimer: I’ve only had one year of serious saving rates, so my portfolio is less than 10% of yours). Still my strategy is quite simple: While employed save aggressively and invest everything on Stocks (VTI or VT). You don’t really care about what’s going to happen to your portfolio short term (it may go up, it may go down). Once you’re approaching retirement, allocate a small percentage to bonds and stick to that allocation.
I know it’s always tough to do when you’re the one invested. Your strategy about F(CAPE) and 1-F(CAPE) seems ok, but I honestly think it overcomplicates things with no certain benefits. As you said, you would be just better off by playing dead and never logging in your IB account. The simplicity part is more important than it seems. The more we try to optimize the more likely we are to start making changes to the initial strategy for more optimal allocations etc. For me, a strategy should be kept KISS (keep it simple stupid). The less meddling, the less chances we screw up. Also, if we’re indeed in a stock market bubble, it doesn’t matter if you hold small cap, large cap etc everything will crush together.
3. Looking at your expressions I can’t help but think that you’re so stressed, that you can think clearly for everyone else except yourself. I’ve been in that situation before and this is the impression I get from your writings the last months. If I asked you for advice, I’m pretty sure you would offer honest and good advice and something close to my strategy, but when you’re the one under the gun, it’s impossible to keep you coolness and approach things the same way.
5. Do not be afraid to let go of the past. We’re people not robots so, sometimes we need to experience something in order to truly learn from it. So, there should be no shame or guilt in having slight losses in the stock market for just one year, hell others have lost everything! Yes it sucks when we’re wrong, but you can’t correct a mistake (selling VT at 76) with another mistake (not buying VT at 96), if that’s your strategy.
6. – I had more to write here, but this is already getting long enough. Anyway, since I started commenting, we’ll keep in touch.
Very good comment in my view, in particular 2. I believe the strategy has too many “adjustable parts” you may use in a counterproductive way or more dangerously that can lead you not adhere to it. I would go for a very simple asset allocation that you can hold on to for a very long time. I lost big money during COVID but it was perfectly fine as I am convinced that my AA will very likely work long-term. So I just continued what I always did: invest fully in line with my AA, happy that I could invest new money at more attractive prices and being convinced that in the long-term it will be fine. No fun money, no “regular review”, no adjustments, just holding on to it.
(sorry for my english..) I think I agree. Reasoning about CAPE means you are trying to do market timing. Dangerous thing. And CAPE is not the only variable. There is also the GREAT variable of the policies of central banks for example, that are now generating “TINA”. Or the Covid variable (there will be mutations that will obstaculate vaccines?). Geopolitics variables. Or other impredictable things.
Probably, the only way to not become crazy and iperstressed, is to create a solid but simple asset allocation, that avoid overthinking, and then “buy and hold”. Rebalancing only in an arithmetic sense, or if there are changes in your life goals and/or temporal horizon.
I’ve heard about studies that say that the “buy and hold” strategy beats in most cases the market timing strategy (as your financial 2020 demonstrates).
PS perhaps the only market timing strategy that makes sense is to keep some liquidity apart, and invest it PROGRESSIVELY in stocks when there is a market crash (at least 15 %). This beacuse saying that there has been a crash is more simple that saying that prices are high and that there will be a crash (when??…).
I think it is a very nice comment.
Similar situation: I’ve been reading your blog for a long time and I learned a lot of new things I didn’t know many times. I thank you 1000 times for this. I try also to give you my constructive feedback, I hope not to offend you or anything.
I too think in this situation you are a bit overreacting due to stress/life/etc..
I add a couple of comments.
You switched two times from two strategies that both make sense:
1- The decision to sell everything at 76 made sense. The market were priced high by historical standards.
2- The decision to buy & hold now makes sense, it is historically one of the best strategies
They are both hold strategies that are guaranteed to fail if you don’t hold.
1- A bubble is not guaranteed to explode immediately, quite the opposite.
2- Buy&hold is called buy&hold for a reason
I’m not saying this post strategy does not make sense, quite the opposite. But it did not make sense to change only because the market went up. It’s dangerously close to timing the market.
I think that this market-induced tendency to change strategy is the weakest point of your investing plan and the likeliest failing point.
Of course, no judgment, just a third person point of view. Maybe I would have reacted even worse if I had all your money 🙂
Thanks Ste, I replied to your comment publicly on my follow-up posts here:
I love your point #4 😀
Jokes apart, this is a great comment, and I decided to address you points in my follow-up post here:
Nice DD, no more 📝🙌, just💎🙌 from now on.
You’re one of us now with your 35k!
Board the next 🚀 to the moon!
Qualche rapida osservazione alle tue interessanti riflessioni:
il fatto che nel 2020 hai perso NOTEVOLMENTE l’orientamento di strategia finanziaria, e con esso possibilità di guadagno, va messo agli atti, e tenere forse come insegnamento per il presente e per il futuro. Col senno di poi, forse una autorevole consulenza finanziaria INDIPENDENTE A PARCELLA ti avrebbe aiutato a definire e perseguire correttamente i tuoi obiettivi di investimento; avrebbe aumentato i tuoi guadagni e, cosa importante, ridotto il tuo stress (piccolo esempio tecnico e non ‘strategico’: la questione hedging o non hedging). Io personalmente preferisco pagare una parcella piuttosto che macerarmi nella paura di fare errori (ne so meno di te di finanza però). Ovvio che vanno fatti dei conti aritmetici su quanto costa la consulenza e se ne vale la pena.
un 5% o simile di oro deve esserci in ogni portafoglio dicono quasi tutti, per vari motivi.
per il mercato azionario 10 anni di orizzonte temporale sono il minimo minimo credo. Meglio 15/20 anni. Vasto programma mentale, ovviamente (e lo dico anche a me stesso). Su 20 anni dal 1800 a oggi il mercato azionario ha SEMPRE guadagnato se ben ricordo. Il terrore che non sia così in futuro ce l’ho anch’io, ma molti dicono: se il mondo crolla per non so quale apocalisse, avrai problemi più gravi che gli investimenti in perdita a cui pensare.. Questione aperta..
investire e disinvestire perlopiù a scaglioni, non in botte uniche.
COSA IMPORTANTISSIMA che non mi sembra presente nella tua strategia: avere liquidità di riserva (20% a spanne) per comprare azioni in caso di ribasso pesante (ribasso dal 15% in su). Cosa distinta dalla liquidità che uno tiene da parte per avere 1-2 anni di autonomia finanziaria, liquidità questa che non va messa MAI e poi MAI sul mercato. Questa liquidità di riserva potenzialmente investibile permette tra l’altro di avere un filino di terrore in meno a cospetto dei fisiologici ribassi di mercato!
PS Nel mio scritto avevo diviso in punti e capoversi ma vedo che nella bozza di pubblicazione la mia impaginazione è “saltata” e il mio commento diventa di difficile lettura così.
Ottimo lavoro ancora Mr RIP; 2020 anno così così anche per me fortunatamente salvato all’ultimo essendomi trasferito in Svizzera e avendo azzeccato qualche acquisto su azioni.
Come già scritto nei commenti precedenti, ma anche dal mio punto di vista, penseremo sempre dopo aver venduto “vedrai che adesso sale”; sarà, purtroppo o per fortuna, sempre così ma meglio un piccolo guadagno oggi che una perdita consistente domani.
Buon 2021 e buona fortuna per i tuoi investimenti
Just read the monster post, did not read the comments so sorry if someone else already said it.
the more I read your ‘issue’ the more it makes me think about an endowment fund: you cannot stomach volatility and ideally in the future would like to enjoy a constant (inflation adjusted) stream of outflows. I think you should consider alternative assets, especially now that it is really easy to get exposure even with limited capital, so you can try first. This book by Swensen is quite old but it is the bible from the master himself:
Maybe he will convince you 😉
there are also strategies that allows you to get stock exposure but with lower volatility, like:
You gain less during a bull market but it protects more during a downside, during an overall cycle the Sharpe ratio should higher (it has been in the past)
Thanks The ILS, I’ve elaborated a bit- but not really answered – on your comment in my follow-up post here:
Sharing the messy process we go through is more valuable than a shiny result. Thanks for that!
Your long term USD:CHF chart motivatedme to test a hypothesis I held for a long time: That differences in CPI inflation are roughly balancing out exchange rates over time. Starting from 1970, USD:CHF exchange rate corrected for CPI is staying nicely in a +/-20% corridor and currently very similar to 1970.
You can find the data here: https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm
Great post on a complex topic! The struggle between rational and emotional aspects when dealing with a high net worth is very well described and makes total sense, especially in the current crazy market environment.
However, I guess that being FI requires to make a bet that markets WILL go up in the future as they did in the past. If we are not ready to make this bet, we can stay rich but we cannot be FI.
The difference between being ‘rich’ and being FI is not the amount of money but the way this money is invested (i.e. whether it generates enough passive income or not).
If we define FI as earning a high enough passive return to cover our expenses without reducing our net worth, this requires to be (fully?) invested in stocks or sufficiently high yielding alternatives (except real estate i don’t see any other options).
Therefore, in order to be FI, there is no other way than to bet on a favorable market development in the next decades and to invest accordingly. If we lose this bet, we need to rely on an active income, i.e. going back to work in case we had FIREd:)
Awesome comment, and a cold shower.
I’ve considered your comment in my follow-up post, here:
Very interesting to read through your thinking behing your new upcoming IPS.
Now I was wondering about the high-yield dividend part of your new portfolio. As dividends are taxed as income in Switzerland, isn’t this “stupid”? Sorry for using the word “stupid” here but I didn’t find a better word hehe… Or you just don’t care about having to pay more income tax?
All the best!
Hi Mabi, thanks for your comment 🙂
I’ve addressed your comment in my follow-up post here:
Reading felt like it was largely my own braindump from 2020. Very similar thought patterns, some very similar exposures USD, buying to much BND etc. etc. Thanks for sharing. Now I don’t need to write down my own story/thoughts. Somebody else did it for me. 😀
Why the decision (if I’m understanding this correctly) to not decrease stock allocation further if CAPE goes over 30?
Hi Mateusz, thanks for your question. I’ve answered it (I guess) in my folow-up post here:
StarCapital stoped their service of publishing CAPE Ratio’s world wide.
An alternative I’ve found on an other blog is researchaffiliates. You have to sign up for it, but i looks like it is for free.
This is amazing, I’ve lost hours navigating the data on that website!
Thank you so much for the recommendation 🙂
… but it’s also scary, expected 10y returns are horrible 🙁
Thanks for the article, Mr Rip. It was a monster one, but it made through it! 🙂
It’s interesting to see the reasoning behind an IPS and definitely helps as inspiration for your audience.
I was wondering, once you have decided the asset allocation, how do you proceed with your CHF 50K investment per month? We all know that you should not try to time the market… Do you then just pick a random day in the month to buy the ETFs?
Hi Ajeje, I hope I answered your question in my follow-up post here:
io comunque resto sempre dell’idea che – Time in the market beat market timing. Detto questo ci sta ribilanciare il portafoglio…
I just wanted to say how much I relate to your position. I am probably slightly/significantly (who’s to say) less burnt out than you and certainly a good deal less net worthy. I think the struggle that you are going through to work out how to be financially secure is a real one that is not so obvious to those of us who are still working and intend to remain so for the near future.
What I’ve learnt from your 2020 oeuvre is what a transition it must be to go from being a dude with a job who dabbles in investing but for whom the investing has zero impact on your ability to pay your way, to someone who has to take a view on the global economy for the next 30 years in order to know whether the finances are working out or not. The more I think about it the less it seems like it’s worth it. How can you find security when faced with an unknowable future?
Given your clear propensity to ruminate about stuff this is a silly question but have you thought about just coasting? Y’know just to remove all the pressure to know the future? decide to maintain some sort of part time, seasonal or periodic side gig that approximately covers your expenses and then go back to seeing the stache as something that is a bit more peripheral to your life. Obviously you (probably :)) don’t need to for financial reasons but it would mean you don’t need to lock up so much in short term savings or really fret about the japan scenario.
Oh thank you!
Finally someone who tries to put him/herself in my shoes 🙂
“How can you find security when faced with an unknowable future?”
Self Confidence should close the gap.
Read these two amazing posts:
About coasting, YES. That’s what I plan to do. Even less than that: say I need 7k/month, I’m ok with earning 5k/month and be confident that I can take the extra 2k/month from my nest egg (which would be a 1.5% SWR at the moment).
Amazing comment, thank you! (sorry for late reply)
Firstly, great article as always, and thanks for sharing your thoughts!
Allow me to complement this knowledge base with what I learned in some investment courses at university.
In a very high-level approach, the reason why people talk about a xx%/1-xx% stock/bond AA is because bonds are – in the traditional financial theory – expected to be anti-correlated with bond (at least to some extent). Therefore, holding a stock/bonds portfolio historically helped smooth one’s performance (=decrease the portfolio volatility = optimizing your sharpe ratio), and ensure better nights 😉
Today we observe that this is not valid anymore in the current market conditions, given that the central banks are bending the free market rules. And traditional bonds are not anti-correlated anymore, not as much as they should.
Therefore a strategy of holding x% stock and 1-x% in cash is actually not bad, since cash will not move in case of a market crash. But there’s an opportunity cost to that, because some assets are indeed anti-correlated with stocks. The most notable examples are chinese bonds, gold, bitcoin. And to some extent 5-7Y U.S bonds. If you hire a portfolio manager, the management fee goes toward making all sort of analysis to choose the “right” stocks, yes. But also to construct a portfolio with the lowest volatility possible for your desired returns. Which mathematically comes down to looking for anticorrelated assets, since they decrease your volatility (=risk).
In essence, you are only talking about expected returns, but that’s only half of the story. Would you rather expect 5% return with 15% volatility, or 5% return with 9% volatility? That’s the concept of the efficient frontier, which is purely derived from math, and not some unverified economic philosophy.
This is why some major investment banks/asset managers started to allocate something like ~1% of some of their client’s portfolios in bitcoin. Because they evaluated that, since Bitcoin is anticorrelated with the market they’d be able to decrease their volatility. So when the market crashes, bitcoin goes up, decreasing your PF volatility, and enabling you to rebalance by selling your bitcoin proceeds to buy more stocks.
So it baffles me that 1- you would be against gold and bitcoin without a strong financial engineering argument aside from your personal preference, and 2- that you are extra concerned with volatility now (understandably!) but are not looking to build a portfolio that would aim at optimally decreasing it for your desired returns (i.e. looking into the asset cross-correlation). What you are presenting here is to decrease your risk in order to decrease your volatility (which is of course a valid reasoning). But my point is that it seems that you did not explore the other lever ot decrease overall PF volatility that is anti-correlation.
Now I realize that it may require more advanced monitoring (asset can change cross correlation with time) and that it may be something that you do not wish to implement given time contraints 🙂
For my personal PF, I have sthg like 80% in stocks and 20% in China bonds/Bitcoin/Gold, which is my way of decreasing my volatility. But Your Mileage May Vary, and ofc different people have different opinions about their AA and what to put in both their “Stocks” and “Bonds” bucket 🙂
Thanks for the very good comment 🙂
I’m “against Bitcoin” as anticorrelated asset to stocks because no matter what data you bring on the table, BTC didn’t exist when Italy won last World Football Championship, and it only has some market value since Pope Francis is in charge, which is statistically statistically like an octopus trying to guess soccer matches.
I’m also against Gold because I care about investing my money in something that has intrinsic value, like assets generating revenues.
Plus, I do not care about anticorrelated assets, I care about uncorrelated assets. Anti correlated assets cancel each other. It’s like buying a stock and at the same time short it. You only end up paying fees. I care about assets that are not correlated.
Apart from this, I totally agree with your points about Cash being an acceptable alternative (unless… welcome hyperinflation!), and the Bond Market being destryoyed by central banks